The Grand Vale Conspiracy

This theory revolves around the plan that the Vale Lords are conspiring to bring down Littlefinger and his control over the Vale and Robert. LF had full control over Robert until the end of AFFC where the Vale storyline ends. The plot ends with the decent to the Gates of the Moon which the Lords of the Eyrie have done for years when winter comes around. The Gates of the Moon are controlled not by LF but by Lord Nestor Royce. LF thinks he has Nestor Royce under his control, and that Yohn Royce is the real danger. But Nestor is the one who ruled the Vale for 14 years, prior to Jon Arryn’s death. He thinks that he has won over (or soon to win over) all of the other Lords of the Lords Declarant, buying up Anya Waynwood’s debt for example. But in a world like Westeros, Anya Waynwood owing LF money doesn’t actually put her under his control because she can just clear her debt by having LF killed. Lord Nestor Royce presents the clearest danger to LF's position in the Vale, because due to his time ruling the Vale while Jon Arryn was in King's Landing, Lord Nestor is the most obvious candidate for replacing LF as Lord Protector, and while LF thinks that he's cleverly neutralized that danger he hasn’t. We know from AFFC that LF thinks he's successfully bribed Nestor Royce---that by granting Lord Nestor the Gates of the Moon via his own power as Lord Protector (rather than having Lord Robert sign the grant), that Lord Nestor would have to support LF's position as Lord Protector or risk losing the Gates. There are four things Lord Nestor would need in order to make himself Lord Protector of the Vale: 1) LF dead or imprisoned, 2) physical custody of Lord Arryn, 3) control of the Gates of the Moon, and 4) the consent of the majority of the other Lords of the Vale. Due to his history (and the Vale Lords' distaste for being ruled over by someone like LF), he probably already has #4, and due to LF’s idiocy, he retained #3 even after Lysa's death. (And if he has any sense at all, he's been using the income and "legitimacy" from LF's "grant" to fatten up the garrison at the Gates, a garrison loyal to him and not to LF. Playing along with LF's games in the autumn was quite smart, because really, the geographical realities of the Vale's climate and the Arryn homes mean that all Lord Nestor really had to do was sit in the Gates and wait for winter to inevitably come, and #1 and #2 would be handed to him on a silver platter. He couldn't storm the Eyrie earlier and take custody of Robert Arryn due to the Eyrie's location, and murdering LF during one of the times he'd descended on business would have been problematic (he'd still have had to go up to the Eyrie to get control of Robert, but that could have been a chancy prospect---for all he knew, LF left behind orders to put Robert to death in the event LF should be harmed). So if Lord Nestor just quietly waits, then everything (and everyone) he needs, will literally have to come straight to him, all without him having to lift a finger. At the end of AFFC, Nestor Royce has physical control of Robert Arryn, complete physical control of Lord Robert's home for the foreseeable future, physical control over LF (the garrison at the Gates being loyal to Lord Nestor, not LF), and probably the support of the Lords Declarant as well. Bronze Yohn made quite a wonderful distraction; all things considered-LF always saw him as the threat, not Lord Nestor.

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